V32: Drought Autopsy
V32: Drought Autopsy
Status: Complete. 50 seeds x 30 cycles x 5 droughts each (250 total drought events).
Question: What happens DURING drought that determines whether a seed develops high ? showed post-drought bounce predicts final , but what creates the bounce?
Result: Integration is trajectory, not event. Mean (95% CI [0.077, 0.095]). Distribution: 22% HIGH / 46% MODERATE / 32% LOW. Max (seed 23, new all-time record). Mean drought mortality 96.8%.
Key revision from : The first drought bounce does NOT predict final category (). What predicts is the mean bounce across all 5 droughts (). Integration is built by repeatedly bouncing back, not by a single event. trajectory slope separates categories perfectly (ANOVA ): every HIGH seed has positive slope, every LOW seed has negative slope.
Robustness is orthogonal to integration (Mann-Whitney ). Seeds that survive droughts well are not the same seeds that develop high . Effective rank (mean 8.1) does not differ across categories.
Source code
Study record — canonical metadata, result path, status, seeds, and key finding.
v32_evolution.py— Fine-grained drought trackingv32_gpu_run.py— 50-seed GPU runnerv32_analysis.py— Drought autopsy analysis