Timelines and Uncertainty

Timelines and Uncertainty

The terminology matters here. Transformative AI (TAI) refers to AI systems capable of causing a transition comparable to the Industrial Revolution, but compressed into a much shorter timeframe. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to AI systems with cognitive capability matching or exceeding humans across all relevant domains. TAI may arrive before AGI—systems need not be generally intelligent to be transformative. Expert estimates for either vary from years to decades, and this uncertainty is itself significant:

• High uncertainty $\to$ high counterfactual weight required
• Short timelines $\to$ urgency for preparation
• Long timelines $\to$ risk of premature commitment to specific paths